I apologize for going MIA for several weeks. It’s been a crazy few weeks in the world outside the Racing World. Almost as crazy as in the world within.
Though I didn’t report, I still collected Racing Lead Change data from Bristol, Kansas, Talladega and the ROVAL. So here goes, bringing things up to date as we enter the Round of Eight.
Bristol Night Race
Fans went into the race with much anticipation. The spring race produced a record 54 lead changes in large part to the unexpected performance of the Goodyear tires that had been used in the fall of 2023 with little issue. Neither Goodyear nor NASCAR could explain the fortuitous occurrence. Goodyear performed tire tests in July to make sure the tire would wear like it did in the spring and it did. Everything pointed to a repeat of the spring race-tires that wore, a Playoff Cutoff Race getting drivers up on the wheel on the series fastest bull ring. Expectations were high as reflected by the crowd in attendance for the Saturday night Shootout.
When the cars rolled out for practice, the anticipated tire wear was nowhere to be found. As a matter of fact, the tires wore so well instead of cars pitting every 40 or 50 laps for tires, some teams went 120 laps or more falloff forced them to change.
Instead of a record number of Lead Changes like the spring, they bottomed out in the other direction, producing only 8 Lead Changes overall, only 2 of which were Green Flag Lead Changes.
Race winner, Kyle Larson stunk up the show, starting outside front row, getting the only Racing Lead Change on Lap 33 on his way to leading a total of 462 of the 500 laps. The only other time the 5-car got passed that night was when he pitted and turned the point over to another team or under caution. Had he qualified a mere 0.0821 seconds faster he would have started on the pole and there would have been no RLCs.
It was not only a dominating performance, but a record-setting one as well as Larson clipped off the 500 laps in a little over 2 hours and 37 minutes. This was nearly an hour quicker than the 2023 edition of the race and the fastest on record.
So, it was a butt-kicking. A massive one.
As a result, Larson picked up the one RLC at the Last Great Coliseum and sent Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex, Jr. Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton to the sidelines as the Playoffs advanced to the Round of 12.
No one could pass the 5 on a night when no one could pass anyone no matter what the position. Martin Truex, Jr. had a very fast car, one that might have competed. But after getting penalized for going to too fast on Pit Road, he found himself locked back in P23 and finished there, unable to pick up a single position.
If you looked at the NASCAR COMPARISONS – nearly every car was flat-lined, running lap after lap in the same position, never passing another car for position. NASCAR Loop data reported some passing but except for rare instances was made up through the pit cycles, although Carson Hocevar and Denny Hamlin had the highest Green Flag and Quality Passes, respectively.
After the race, Larson, his crew chief Cliff Daniels and Denny Hamlin’s crew chief Chris Gabehart took to social media to try to squelch the fans’ outcry. The winning driver warned fans to “temper their expectations”. It will be interesting to see how that advice plays through the remaining Playoffs.
KANSAS
The round of twelve opened on the 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway. The race saw 30 Lead Changes among 15 drivers. 19 of the Lead Changes took place under green, with Racing Lead Changes making up nearly half of those. Race winner and Playoff disrupter Ross Chastain took the lead away from other competitors four times while taking a chance to advance from the remaining 12 Contenders. Chastain was followed by another disrupter, the resurgent Kyle Busch with 3 RLCs. Playoff contenders Ryan Blaney and William Byron each had solos.
The 9 Kansas RLC’s nearly matched the Regular Season race which saw 10. It’s consistently high RLC numbers makes it the top producing track outside the pack racing tracks and a massively inconsistent outlying Bristol.
Overall passing took place outside the Quality Passes (P1-P15). Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott had the most Green Flag Passes while Denny Hamlin again scored the most Quality Passes while holding a narrow 1 RLC lead over Kyle Larson in the RLC Standings.
Chastain’s win changed the dynamics as he has been known to do, but it was nothing compared to what was coming.
TALLADEGA
When you say ‘dega, you’ve said it all. With all that happened between the competitors on-track and the controversy by Race Control’s handling of racing’s Biggest One and its change in interpretation of it’s Damaged Vehicle Policy… those dead horses have been beaten to dust and additional comments now would serve little purpose. I’ll just leave it at “Bless their hearts” and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of it yet.
The race produced a whooping 66 Lead Changes among 24 Drivers. 58 Green Flag Lead Changes came from a total of 51Racing Lead Changes. Race Winner (another disrupter) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. got 4 of those 51 to finally get on the RLC Scoreboard. He held off Brad Keselowski and William Byronin a 0.006 second, three-wide win, the third closest of the season.
Austin Cindric, who looked like he had the car to beat, racked up a season high 9 RLCs before getting crashed out. Joey Logano and Ross Chastain followed with 7 and 6 respectively.
A total of 20 drivers collected 1 or more RLCs during the race, again another season high.
Denny Hamlin failed to make that list and as a result, Joey Logano, with his 7 RLC’s leap frogged Hamlin into the RLC lead with 23. Kyle Larson’s single RLC moved him into a tie for second with Hamlin. Here is an overall breakdown of the Lead Changes:
And an updated RLC Leaderboard after Talladega:
Talladega Green Flag Passes saw the bulk of the Green Flag passes occurring up front with William Byron doing the most passing overall and Race winner, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. doing the bulk of the Quality Passes.
It was a popular win by another disrupter. Stenhouse’s record on pack racing tracks is most impressive. It’s just a shame that his accomplishment got overshadowed by all the controversy around the “Big One” and NASCAR’s handling of the Damaged Vehicle Policy. Ricky deserved better.
ROVAL
The Traveling Circus circled back to its home track for the cutoff race for the Round of 8. This time it was on the hybrid road course-NASCAR’s version of Stadium Racing-the ROVAL. The track had been reconfigured to provide better opportunity for passing and new “turtles” were installed throughout in hopes of keeping the 3400 pound GEN-7’s on the track. Cutoff race, “improved” track, new, bigger “turtles” to disrupt those who tried to cut corners sounded like the perfect race recipe. If that wasn’t enough driver data showed that the impact from hitting the “turtles” was greater than that encountered at Watkins Glen, so a last-minute adjustment with smaller obstacles installed added to the mix.
Once again, Kyle Larson, who missed the 600 here in the spring because of rain, turned the tables and rained on everyone else’s race. He brought things full, circle, back where we started at Bristol, with a 1 RLC dominating win. The Cutoff Race, that saw 7 lead changes by 6 different drivers was a Left and Right version of his win at the Bull Ring. Had the only RLC, led the most laps, scored Stage points in both Stages in addition to the win.
It was almost like he was saying, “This is what you would have seen if I’d had the chance to race here in May.”
The stats are pretty stark considering there were only 5 Green Flag Lead Changes – Larson’s RLC and 4 other Lead Changes because the Leader pitted to give up the lead.
Overall Green Flag Passes again saw the bulk of the passing taking place mid-pack on back. Harrison Burton and Martin Truex, Jr. racked up a 122 Green Flag passes while Carson Hocevar again had the most Quality Passes.
When the race concluded, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez and Chase Briscoe were the next four eliminated from the Playoff. Turns out that wasn’t enough drama, as Alex Bowman failed to meet minimum weight in post-race and was DQ’ed, moving him out of the Playoffs and Joey Logano back in. Now throw in allegations of a member of JGR selling race setups to another team, 23XI and Front Row Motorsports filing an Anti-Trust Lawsuit against the Sanctioning Body, injunctions and discovery and more. It has all the makings for another hit NETFLIX docuseries. Should be a barnburner. LITIGATION: FULL SPEED. Order yours today.
Back to racing. Larson’s single RLC moves him to a tie for the RLC Lead with Joey Logano. Denny Hamlin, who enjoyed a comfortable lead throughout the summer has not made an RLC since the second Richmond. Maybe it’s time for him to make his move. Will he now? Only Denny’s dog Lulu knows for sure.
Here are the standings starting the Third Round. Remaining Playoff drivers are highlighted in red just in case you want to factor drivers’ ability to pass to get to the Lead into your Playoff picks.
FULL CIRCLE
That’s all. In four Playoff Races we started at almost the bottom of RLCs to the Mountaintop and returned back. Just like that.
I guess it’s just another one of those Playoff Deals.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Now, it’s on to the next Round. Three more races to eliminate four drivers and get it down to the Final Four. The excitement and anticipation should be up on the chip. Of the Playoff Eight who remain, in the first two Rounds, Joey Logano had 7 RLCs at Talladega, followed by William Byron, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney who have 3 RLCs each in the first two rounds. Chase Elliott got 1 with Toyota drivers Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick unable to make a single RLC in the six Playoff races.
How will the next Round go? Will we have disrupters taking wins away from these Eight and make it an even larger points battle? Or will the remaining Playoff drivers capture wins in these three to leave five drivers to fight over that final spot?
Tune in to see how it develops. It should be fun!
Thunder On… and Stay Safe!
David Nance
Photo Credit (cover): Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
David, just amazing compilation of stats. Hope things have settled down in your world outside racing.