Last Sunday saw the Cup Series Playoff kickoff in a new location-Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Traditionally, the Labor Day 500 miler at Darlington started the 16 Playoff Contenders down the 10-race challenge for the Cup Crown. The two-week Olympic break forced Ben Kennedy and company to shuffle the schedule by inserting the intermediate that identifies as a superspeedway wildcard into the Playoff mix. After a GEN-7 record 30 Racing Lead Changes for this track in the Spring race that saw Daniel Suarez take a 0.003 second three-wide win over Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch in a then third closest finish in the electronic scoring era, the anticipation meter was pegged. Add to it the Playoff’s “Win and You’re In” pressure to advance to the next round, how could it not be?
The race shook things up in the 2024 Playoff Race. Kyle Larson was running alone in third place when his car snapped unexpectedly into the wall when exiting Turn 2. The massive hit ended his day and with it erased a sizeable chunk of his Playoff Points cushion. Larson’s wreck eventually collected last week’s Regular Season finale Race Winner, Chase Briscoe. His personification of the Jim McKay’s Wide World of Sports’“Thrill of Victory and Agony of Defeat” by going from first last week to last this week has him at the bottom of the Playoff Points Standing and in a deep hole that is going to be difficult to climb out of in two races.
Playoff favorite, Denny Hamlin unsuccessfully employed a “ride in the rear” strategy to try and stay out of trouble until it was time to go. Unfortunately, when it was time to go, he didn’t and even riding at the rear wasn’t safe as he got caught up in a last lap, 10-car stack up that put him limping to the line for a P24 finish leaving him just above the Cut Off-Line.
Even a WalMart sign factored into the Playoff equation as it got loose and blew onto the track, resulting in a Lap 251 Caution with Spring Winner, Daniel Suarez in the lead. Without this caution, who knows how the race plays out.
When the dust finally settled, Perennial Playoff Powerhouse Team Penske flexed their muscle as each of its entries scored Stage and Race wins. CRB (Champion Ryan Blaney) took Stage One, helped teammate Austin Cindric take Stage Two, and pushed teammate Joey Logano to a Green-White-Checkered Race win (the 11th GWC of the season), ahead of Spring Winner, Daniel Suarez, who was being pushed by Trackhouse teammate Ross Chastain.
Logano’s race win advanced him into the Round of Twelve and was his second win of the season. This was Joey’s 34 Cup win of his career, which ranks him 25th on the All-Time Win List, tying him with Kurt Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. It places him 4th on the Active Cup Win List, tying him with MTJ. This was his 7th GEN-7 win, which places him tied with Tyler Reddick for 5th in GEN-7 wins.
The Lead Changes and Passes stats showed 24 Lead Changes among 14 drivers with 7 of them being Racing Lead Changes (Green Flag Lead changes without benefit of bunching at restart or the Leader relinquishing the lead to pit). Six drivers made RLCs with William Byron getting the most, with 2. Here is a breakdown of the Atlanta Playoff Lead Changes
Even with his failed race strategy, the unfortunate Denny Hamlin stayed atop the RLC Leaderboard with 22 RLCs. Joey Logano won the race but had no RLCs. With Kyle Larson and Martin Truex, Jr. having their issues, there was no shuffling in the top four positions. The standings below show the shuffling that resulted in the lower positions from the Atlanta Playoff Race-
Passing Breakdown
The race produced a total of 8960 Green Flag passes for position as captured at the scoring loops. This was most in the GEN-7 era, up 37.1 % from the 6536 GFPs in the Spring race. 4437 of those were Quality Passes for Positions 1-15, which meant that the bulk of the passing took place in the Top 15. This is the sixth race this season where this has occurred. Justin Haley collected the most GFP (363) while Alex Bowman was scored with 334 Quality Passes (P1-P15). Joey Logano won the race with a pass on the Restart lap 365. Below is a Passing Breakdown-
The Surprising Results
As mentioned earlier, the move of the second Atlanta race from the Regular Season into the Pressure Packed Playoffs opener had pegged the Pre-Race Anticipation Meter up on the chip. The Spring Race had produced such excitement with its three wide near record finish, along with GEN-7 record Lead Changes, Green Flag Lead Changes and Racing Lead Changes how could it not repeat now that it was in the Playoffs?
The 37.1% increase in Green Flag Passes when there was no Green Flag pitting was a positive surprise. Having the bulk of those passes as Quality Passes was encouraging but not unexpected as passes up front are a regular occurrence with the superspeedway package.
The big surprise though was when it came to the racing up front it was like Chase Briscoe’s “Thrill of Victory/Agony of Defeat”as the race stats showed a different picture. The Playoff Race had half the number to Lead Changes (24) that the Spring race did (48). Green Flag Lead Changes saw an almost two-thirds drop from a GEN-7 Record for this race of 44 in the Spring to 15 in the Playoffs. Racing Lead Changes dropped from a GEN-7 Record here of 30, ranking it tied for second most for the season with Daytona 2 a few weeks early, to the lowest number of RLCs here in the Next Gen Era (7).
Couple that with in the Spring Race fans saw an RLC on average every 5 Racing Laps (Green Flag Laps after a Start or Restart) but in the Playoffs saw one on average every 29 Racing Laps was not what this race fan expected.
To say this drop in the racing at the front from the Top in the Spring to the Bottom in the Playoffs was a surprise would be an understatement.
Final Thoughts
Was moving Atlanta into the Playoffs a good move or not? If you look at just Green Flag Passes you would have to say YES. However, other metrics like Total Lead Changes, Green Flag Lead Changes and Racing Lead Changes you might think twice.
Historically, the second race has never produced the numbers that the first race does, but there was hope that scheduling it as the first race of the Playoffs would close that gap. Maybe the difference is that is the first race occurs earlier in the cooler part of the season which is more favorable than the sweltering Atlanta summer heat when the second race comes around. Maybe the Playoffs just wasn’t late enough in the season to get any benefit. Or maybe the “fuel mileage strategy” was employed to its fullest and being up front is not as important as saving fuel. One thing is the pressure from the Playoffs didn’t seem to narrow the gap between the two races. It may have worked in reverse as ‘risk vs rewards” kicks into high gear this time of year, plus non-qualifiers tend to race some differently now that their “rewards” have changed.
It can all be “cussed and discussed” but the bottom line is we won’t ever know for sure as 2025 Atlanta’s second race comes out of the Playoffs and moves back into the middle of the Regular Season summer heat when on June 28 it is the “tent-pole” race for the TNT portion of the Cup Season.
With Atlanta’s first race returning next season as Race #2 will it produce similar results to its Record Breaking P2 2024 race? How will Atlanta-2’s return to summer compare? Only time will tell.
It’s going to be something to file away and watch for next year, so stay tuned.
Now, it is on Round 1-Race 2 for Watkins Glen’s inaugural Playoff appearance. Story lines abound with Shane Van Gisbergen and Juan Pablo Montoya entered as road course ringers on New York’s newly configured, high-speed road course. Will all the new rumble strips keep the cars on-track? Will they change the racing? How about those new high-dropoff tires Goodyear is introducing this week? Will it produce more strategy and better racing? Speaking of race strategy, what will Denny Hamlin use this week? More importantly, will he share it with his crew chief? Can Hendrick Motor Sports maintain its stronghold on this season’s road courses? Will Chase Elliott get the win for them this weekend?
Lot to look forward to. Tune in and find out.
Till then…
Thunder On… and Stay Safe!
David Nance
Photo Credit (cover): Logan Riely/Getty Images
Hi David,
Once again we have great reading here by a great writer. Thank you.
Sometimes we take things for granted and although we recognize when there are a lot of passing and a lot of great moves by some drivers, they tend to slip our mind and eventually we forget which race and which drivers were more special in each race and where it was. I thin this is due to age, lol.
Thank you for putting so much in writing and allowing to have it posted on line so it will be there for all to see and read!
Until next time.
Vivian