What can you say about the Final Race of Round Three? Ryan Blaney came into the race below the Cutline, made the final Racing Lead Change for the win, joining Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick in the Championship 4. Chase Elliott had the most Racing Lead Changes (2), but his P2 finish just wasn’t enough to advance. Christopher Bell got a much needed spot from Toyota team mate Bubba Wallace to put him in the Finals, only to have his mini-“Hail Melon” and resultant Safety Violation penalty knocking him out. Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain escorted Chevy teammate William Byron to a P6 finish using a rolling blockade last seen when OJ Simpson tried to make his Freeway escape. This was just enough to give him the final Championship spot and set the Championship Four for this weekend’s race a Phoenix.
The resulting controversy of Chastain, Dillon and Wallace manipulating the finish and the penalties assessed is all the talk and probably won’t be over until long after Phoenix. Since all of that is under appeal, we’ll leave that for another time and focus on the task at hand – the Martinsville Race and it’s Racing Lead Changes.
Blaney started his winning run on Lap 413 coming out of the ninth Caution of the race for an errant wheel on the restart in P10. Over the next 87 laps he picked off driver after driver, finally passing Chase Elliott on the point on Lap 486. It was the only his third time to be at the front, but it was the right time as he finished only leading 32 laps, as opposed to Brad Keselowski’s 170 laps. The race saw 15 Lead Changes among 7 different drivers. Only 7 Lead Changes occurred under Green Flag conditions with the breakdown shown below.
RLC’s made up the largest category of Green Flag Lead Changes which is always a good sign. In the Homestead article, not only was the number of RLC’s discussed as indicators of the “goodness” of a race, but also the timing of when they occurred seemed to also play a role in that determination. For this reason, the Laps when the RLCs occurred were also listed. That said, the timing couldn’t get much better as RLC’s were the first Green Flag Lead Change and the last two Green Flag Lead Changes. Nothing like the race playing out under green with some passes at the front to get the fans on their feet for the finish, leaving them with good feelings.
Chase’s 2 RLC’s and Ryan’s single changed the RLC Leaderboard as follows with Championship Four contender Joey Logano still sitting in the lead with one race to go:
Martinsville’s 3 RLCs tied it with 5 other races for 17th, one behind the other two Round Three races-Las Vegas and Homestead.
This means that for Round Three, the Round for the Finals, fans saw a Green Flag pass for the lead without benefit of restart or the Leader pitting to give up the lead, a Racing Lead Change 11 times over three races. The 3 Martinsville RLCs tied the 2022 RLC count for this race but fell short of the 5 RLCs last year.
Goodyear brought in a new, softer tire combo to try to improve passing and promote more tire falloff. The tires didn’t rubber in the track but did wear, leaving tire residue on the track. During practice, one chunk of rubber got into the throttle body of his #11, hanging the throttle wide open. The resulting crashseriously trashed the car, but Chris Gabehart and crew were able to put it back together and Hamlin drove his reconstructed ride from his starting spot of P37 up to a high of P2 with an eventual finish of P5.
Post race opinions about whether the tire accomplished what it was hoped were mixed. The NASCAR Loop Data showed a record high Green Flag Passes for this race in the GEN-7 erawith 2605 passes, almost double from the 2023 race and a far cry from the record low of 2022’s 674 passes.
Not only was this a GEN-7 record here but was the highest number of Green Flag Passes since the 2012 race recorded 2772.
Quality Passes (P1-P15) were also a GEN-7 record high for this race, with the 766 Quality Passes more than doubling the 2022 QPs (331) and a 44% jump over 2023 (531). The jury is still out on whether these improvements in competition is solely attributed to the new tires or not, but it appears to point to Goodyear heading in a positive direction.
Even though the passes for this race are records, the Passing Distribution was again mid-pack and back. Daniel Suarez had the most Green Flag Passes while Joey Logano had the most Quality Passes. As mentioned earlier, the Winning Pass was a RLC when Ryan Blaney passed Chase Elliott on Lap 486.
Final Martinsville Thoughts
Overall, I think the Martinsville race was one of the better races there and produced numerous story lines, mostly concerning the racing. Throughout this Round, Blaney found himself below the Cutline and needed a win to have any chance of defending his Championship. He gave one away last week at Homestead. Usually the Racing Gods don’t smile upon you two races in a row but this time they did and he made sure he was the first one to the flag to punch his ticket to the Finals.
Chase Elliott had another strong consistent run passing for the lead twice, but P2 wasn’t enough to advance.
Denny Hamlin’s drive from the rear with his repaired car was impressive. Unfortunately, his carriage turned into a pumpkin as the Martinsville grandfather clock struck midnight for him.
Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano were already locked into the Finals and weren’t the factors hoped for. We’ll see what they bring to Phoenix next week.
We’ve already discussed the Goodyear storyline. Have they finally found what it takes to improve GEN-7s ability to put on a decent race on the Series Short Tracks? Sure hope so.
Unfortunately, for all the good racing storylines that came out of Martinsville, they were overshadowed by the antics of a few teams trying to ensure that their OEM teammates would finish where necessary to earn enough points to qualify for the final Playoff spot. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell and Hendrick MotorSports’ William Byron were locked in a pointsbattle to get their Toyota and Camaro in only to see things go absolutely stupid, opening a Pandora’s Box that may never be re-lidded.
That’s a shame as there was plenty of good stuff to talk about without it. Now all anyone can talk about are the circumstances that eliminated Bell and allowed Byron to advance, which has cast a shadow on the entire Finals.
Throw in renewed criticism of the Playoff System, Logano even being in the Finals, Mike Forde’s “Botgate”, Chase Elliott’s refusal to do NETFLIX, Michael Jordon’s on-going antitrust litigation, Ty Majeski’s voting/no show penalty, missed calls by Race Control during the race (how do you miss a tire sailing off a car coming to the restart?). Talks with the OEMs to stop messing with the race finishes. Plus, the last word you ever want to hear going into your Championship race is “Manipulation”…but here we are.
Not even a good race, however it’s defined can overcome all this.
And that’s sad. Very sad.
What about Phoenix?
Trying to move forward, the big question now becomes who is going to win it all in Phoenix?
If you just look at history, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney each have a GEN-7 Championship and are poised to be the first repeat Champion in this era.
We’ve been tracking Racing Lead Changes all season and if they are any indicator, Joey Logano would be the favorite with his season-leading 24 RLC’s. He holds a sizeable lead over Blaney, Byron and Reddick in this category as shown in the chart above.
If you take a closer look at RLC’s through the Playoffs, Logano would still be a favorite based on sheer number of passes (8). But a strong case could be made for Blaney who got RLCs in five different races. Reddick has two RLCs but they came in the Third Round and ties Blaney for Round Three RLCs. Byron is struggling on momentum having no RLCs in Round Three.
Or maybe GEN-7 Championship RLCs are what you want to look at. Ryan Blaney would be your driver as he not only went to the front the most times (3) but is the only driver to do it in each of the first two GEN-7 Championships.
After Ross Chastain’s win showed everyone in the Finals last year that the Champion doesn’t have to win the race, they just have to outrun the other three finalist, who had the highest Average Finish in Phoenix GEN-7 Races?
That would be Ryan Blaney. He also had the highest Average Finish in GEN-7 Championship races.
Maybe Head-to-Head turns your race-pick crank? If that’s the case this is what it would look like, with Ryan Blaney winning a staggering 80% of the match ups. Impressive… but each of his competitors have beaten him once… so it can be done. Can it be done again Sunday?
Lots of things to consider.
Me-I think Christopher Bell is going to win the race. That would be a nice “in your face” for throwing him out for his “wall-ride” and would make for a good story line, but it wouldn’t bother me one bit if Martin Truex, Jr. or Kyle Buschtook the flag. MTJ doesn’t need to go out without a win and a winning streak like Rowdy’s is hard to see end after missing it so many times this year.
I don’t think with all the ancillary nonsense going on this week with talking to the drivers, OEMs, suspensions we’ll see a repeat win by Ross Chastain. It’s time to move on and let the dust settle.
Remember, the Champion doesn’t have to win the race, just outrun the other three, a Tyler Reddick high finish would be interesting. With everything going on off the track seeing the Trophy presentation to a team that has on-going antitrust litigation against the Sanctioning Body might be interesting. Seeing Michael Jordon win a Championship in another sport would be kinda neat. My concern is it’s said that to win a championship, you have to lose one. Can Reddick break that and get it on his first try?
Byron got in with help and depending on what was said to drivers and teams this week, not sure how much help will be waiting for him in the desert. HMS just seems to find a way to come up a bit short each year. With everything that has gone on, this Sunday may need to be added to that ever growing list.
Joey Logano snuck in on Alex Bowman’s DQ and immediately pounced on the chance to jump to the Finals. No more of that now. He has had two weeks to prepare, so it’s now GO time. Will it be enough though?
Think Ryan Blaney can repeat but it will all depend on the Captain’s call. This is the first GEN-7 Championship where he has had both cars with a chance. Who will be wingman Sunday?
Start to finish, the 2024 season can best be described as Unprecedented. Maybe instead of a heated battle on track to settle it all, the Championship Four will wad it up in Turn 1, Lap 1 and the DVP will decide which of the Four is the Champion.
That would truly be unprecedented… but oh so fitting for this season known as 2024.
Wouldn’t that be something? Tune in and let’s find out. Till then…
Thunder On… and Stay Safe!
David Nance
Photo Credit (cover): Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
As usual, David, thanks. This might be the most thoughtful analysis anybody has done on Martinsville. I appreciate that PTR exists for the fan interested enough to THINK and not just read the most inflammatory opinions. A reader can actually learn by reading your articles. Now . . . here comes Phoenix.
Frank, thank you for the comment “A reader can actually learn by reading your articles.” I feel exactly the same way. He gives us so much insight and analysis of so many things during the race that so many of us miss and it is so interesting to go back and re-visit the race and and see it from another view
Meanwhile, David, you gave us another great read and analysis of a great race! Thank you
Thanks Vivian!
Always hope a different perspective allows fans to get a deeper appreciation for the sport.
Take care and have a great off season!
Thanks Frank for your very kind words.
When I got into this there was a few things I hoped my scribbling would achieve-teach, remember/appreciate, think and have fun.
I love the writers here because they always teach me something, there is something I didn’t know that they taught me. I deeply admire you and the other writers and their work here and hope I can do likewise or at least stay close enough to get the Lucky Dog.
In my writings on my experiences I hope that something I shared hits a nerve with the reader that reminds them of one of their experiences, brings it back and brings a smile, and they once again appreciate a long lost part of their unique and personal racing journey.
In todays information overload it’s so easy to get swept up into and go with the flow of what “sounds good” or “sounds right”. But you’ve been at this long enough and seen enough to know that what “the flow” believes often has with it unintended consequences that makes things worse than the initial situation. Sometimes it pays to stop for a moment and look at things from a different angle and think about it and see if what we’re being told is truth. It’s hard to believe we have awesome racing when the Champ only passes for the lead 7 times in 36 races.
Hopefully it’s fun for y’all. If it’s not then your time reading and commenting is a waste and as the laps wind down the last thing we need is a waste when it comes to time.
Lofty goals I know. Hopefully, I hit on a couple.
Thanks again Frank! Appreciate you!
Have a great off-season.