WHO NASCAR NEEDS TO WIN  

I’m not sure who is going to win Sunday’s Cup Championship, but I’m sure who needs to win to bring some sanity back to what has been an insane Playoff and take some pressure off of NASCAR’s Playoff System.

It hasn’t been a good insane either.

To restore some sanity to close out 2024, Ryan Blaney needs to win the 2024 Cup Championship.  Period.

It needs to be a clean race. Race Control cannot be a factor.

He also needs to win the Championship by winning the race. He can’t have any driver-Playoff Contender or otherwise finish ahead of him like Ross Chastain did last year.  

Blaney must be the first across the line… period. No one else will do. Here’s why-

For starters it can’t be Joey Logano.  

Denny Hamlin, speaking on his recent podcast, Actions Detrimental has already warned, “I can tell you this and it’s not their fault or his fault or anyone. But if Joey Logano wins this title, there is going to be a wrath on social media about this format. It already is. It’s so interesting because Kyle Larson, you said in this season or when you decided this that you wanted to put an emphasis on winning. He’s won more races than anyone by a long way and yet he is not part of the title fight.”

I’m far from a fan of Denny and take much of what he says with a massive grain of salt, but on this one I have to agree with him. A Logano Championship after being eliminated in the Round of Twelve and then reinserted back in after Alex Bowman’s disqualification would spark a social media meltdown by bots and non-bots alike.  

Not good.

Can’t see where a William Byron Championship would be well received either. As beneficiary of the Team Chevy blockade of Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain that prevented any other cars to pass, it allowed Byron to point his way into the Finals.  Many have already cried foul, especially since the Blockers got penalized while the Blockee freely skipped to Phoenix. Byron‘s presence in the Finals has already brought a downpour of Playoff criticism.  If he were to somehow bring his first Bill France Trophy back to Mr. H. at HMS it could be catastrophic.

A Championship by Regular Season Champ Tyler Reddick would be popular among many fans who would like nothing more than to see owners Michael Jordon, Denny Hamlin and Curtis Polk join “that little kid” in Victory Lane to hoist the trophy. But considering Tyler’s owners refused to sign NASCAR’s “take-it-or-leave-it” final offer, filed an antitrust lawsuit against the Sanctioning Body and is in the midst of said litigation has split the fan base, a Steve Phelps trophy presentation to the Plaintiffs doesn’t calm the insanity, but intensifies it.  

So not a good idea.

That leaves CRB-Champion Ryan Blaney.

He repeats as Champion. In the Round of Eight he needed a win to advance, let Homestead slip through his fingers only to win at the Last Chance Martinsville race.  

He qualified without teammate or factory shenanigans, so he has none of that baggage. His owner is not a party to the lawsuit, so we have none of that tenseness and his on-track performance makes it hard to question his worthiness.

But he can’t be the high Finalist finisher like last year. He has to win the race.

If an eliminated driver, such as Chris Buescher or Kyle Busch win the race, finishing ahead of the Champion, the Playoff opponents will have a field day.

Eliminated Playoff drivers winning the Final race would be considerably awkward. A Martin Truex Jr. win would be a fitting exit from full-time Cup competition but would only add fuel to the fire.

This season’s winningest driver, Kyle Larson adding to his 2024-win dominance by taking the final race, a race in which he wasn’t allowed to participate for the Championship will only intensify the Playoffs critics howls. The two drivers ahead of him in points-William Byron got to the finals through race manipulation and Christopher Bell was penalized for a safety violation, Larson’s path was clean which further fuels the Playoff critic’s case.  A 7th win for Larson might balm their season but for the Playoffs it could blow the lid off things.

Can you imagine if a penalized or previously disqualified driver took Phoenix?  Light-weight Alex Bowman? Chevy’s version of Jerry Kramer and Forrest Gregg-Austin Dillon or Ross Chastain? You mean the “heavy” penalties weren’t enough to slow them down and make them pay? Likewise, for a 23XI, A Bubba Wallace race win plus his ownership would cause the same awkwardness as a Tyler Reddick Championship. A Bubba Wallace race win and Tyler Reddick Championship would cause a massive meltdown for the Sanctioning Body’s PR department and the sports Talking Heads. That might make for some interesting viewing.

A win by Christopher Bell after being eliminated for his “Half Melon” Safety Violation (a Hail Melon that only covered one turn, instead of two like Chastain’s) would be a major “in your face” and would add to the critics case that the Playoffs didn’t get the right driver in.

A Denny win would be ironic and bittersweet, winning the race in a season he didn’t make the Championship Four.  Between that, his criticism of the Playoffs and his lawsuit, a win Sunday would make for a less than ideal close to the season.

If NASCAR is to get out of 2024 with the least amount of flack, they need Ryan Blaney to win the race Sunday and repeat as Champion.

Period.

Even that might not be enough.

Who needs to win and will win are two different things. Who do I think will win?

I have no idea who will win but I know what I’m pulling for…

I want to see the Championship Four wad it up Turn 1, Lap 1 and the DVP has to decide the Playoff winner.

Now that would be something to see!

If what happened in Xfinity practice had happened in the race instead, we would have been there in that series.

Can the Cup actually do it?

Tune in and find out…

Thunder On… and Stay Safe!

David Nance

Photo Credit (cover): NASCAR.com